Navigate the Future of Trade
Trade Currents delivers in-depth analysis of historical and emerging patterns in international trade. We forecast trade volumes and assess related risks, leveraging detailed economic data and insights from leading economists.
The Covid Wave
The pandemic disrupted years of steady growth in containerized imports, causing a dip in in 2020, followed by a sharp rebound in 2021 through 2022 and a steep decline in 2023. The future of U.S. container trade remains uncertain as we look to 2024 and beyond. Our projections explore this trend by commodity.
dive deeperContainerized U.S. Vessel Imports
U.S. Macroeconomics
We examine historical variations in U.S. trade volumes and identify key factors that shape future trends. Critical macroeconomic elements from consumer spending and industrial production to residential and non-residential investment are pivotal in determining these patterns.
Trade Partners
The composition of countries trading with the U.S. significantly impacts the flow of goods by commodity, mode, and port. China’s share of imports dropped dramatically in 2019 and continued to decline through 2023. Increasing overland trade with Mexico and Canada, this trend reduces U.S. vessel and containerized imports.
Modality
Changes between vessel, air, and land transport are crucial in shaping aggregate trade volumes and growth rates. Preferred transportation modes adapt to advancing logistics technology, fluctuating fuel prices, and geopolitical events.
Seasonality
Seasonal fluctuations in consumer demand lead to cyclical patterns for many commodities, with imports typically peaking in the third quarter. Businesses adjust their supply chain strategies to accommodate this seasonality.